New Seat Details - Berwick and Morpeth

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Berwick and Morpeth been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	28,409	50.1%
LAB	17,240	30.4%
LIB	9,353	16.5%
Green	1,110	2.0%
UKIP	592	1.0%
CON Majority	11,169	19.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Berwick and Morpeth: Map

List of old seats forming part of Berwick and Morpeth

Old seat: Berwick-upon-Tweed

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Berwick-upon-Tweed, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Berwick-upon-Tweed				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Northumberland	Alnwick	7,449	Berwick and Morpeth	2,783	1,164	1,427	0	113	0	0	0	5,487
Northumberland	Amble	3,408	Berwick and Morpeth	1,092	1,277	362	0	45	0	0	0	2,776
Northumberland	Amble West with Warkworth	3,318	Berwick and Morpeth	1,236	478	566	0	47	0	0	0	2,327
Northumberland	Bamburgh	3,450	Berwick and Morpeth	1,618	402	538	0	49	0	0	0	2,607
Northumberland	Berwick East	3,215	Berwick and Morpeth	1,132	766	774	0	57	0	0	0	2,729
Northumberland	Berwick North	3,146	Berwick and Morpeth	1,144	531	760	0	57	0	0	0	2,492
Northumberland	Berwick West with Ord	2,943	Berwick and Morpeth	994	514	697	0	45	0	0	0	2,250
Northumberland	Druridge Bay	3,936	Berwick and Morpeth	1,530	1,527	469	0	57	0	0	0	3,583
Northumberland	Longhorsley	2,261	Berwick and Morpeth	1,194	174	171	0	21	0	0	0	1,560
Northumberland	Longhoughton	3,286	Berwick and Morpeth	1,756	478	334	0	52	0	0	0	2,620
Northumberland	Lynemouth	3,207	Blyth and Ashington	1,062	983	491	0	44	0	0	0	2,580
Northumberland	Norham and Islandshires	3,440	Berwick and Morpeth	1,364	349	700	0	50	0	0	0	2,463
Northumberland	Pegswood	670	Berwick and Morpeth	215	164	90	0	9	0	0	0	478
Northumberland	Ponteland North	530	Hexham and Cramlington	288	48	45	0	6	0	0	0	387
Northumberland	Rothbury	3,957	Berwick and Morpeth	1,436	407	885	0	57	0	0	0	2,785
Northumberland	Shilbottle	3,962	Berwick and Morpeth	1,637	733	338	0	43	0	0	0	2,751
Northumberland	Wooler	3,318	Berwick and Morpeth	1,665	369	271	0	34	0	0	0	2,339
	Total	55,496		22,146	10,364	8,918	0	786	0	0	0	42,214

The full details of these calculations are given on the Berwick-upon-Tweed seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hexham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hexham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hexham				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Northumberland	Bellingham	3,050	Berwick and Morpeth	1,493	732	165	31	61	0	0	0	2,482
Northumberland	Bywell	3,457	Hexham and Cramlington	1,347	911	385	31	95	0	0	0	2,769
Northumberland	Corbridge	3,353	Hexham and Cramlington	1,472	774	208	27	67	0	0	0	2,548
Northumberland	Haltwhistle	3,583	Hexham and Cramlington	1,309	1,302	153	84	77	0	0	0	2,925
Northumberland	Haydon and Hadrian	3,321	Hexham and Cramlington	1,265	926	348	86	92	0	0	0	2,717
Northumberland	Hexham Central with Acomb	3,235	Hexham and Cramlington	1,226	1,169	168	76	76	0	0	0	2,715
Northumberland	Hexham East	3,228	Hexham and Cramlington	1,254	992	262	75	88	0	0	0	2,671
Northumberland	Hexham West	3,177	Hexham and Cramlington	1,363	736	294	66	88	0	0	0	2,547
Northumberland	Humshaugh	3,244	Hexham and Cramlington	1,550	728	165	24	63	0	0	0	2,530
Northumberland	Ponteland East and Stannington	3,297	Hexham and Cramlington	1,670	556	91	57	56	0	0	0	2,430
Northumberland	Ponteland North	3,114	Hexham and Cramlington	1,653	565	90	25	49	0	0	0	2,382
Northumberland	Ponteland South with Heddon	3,351	Hexham and Cramlington	1,580	530	182	24	57	0	0	0	2,373
Northumberland	Ponteland West	3,275	Hexham and Cramlington	1,935	568	83	59	57	0	0	0	2,702
Northumberland	Prudhoe North	4,112	Hexham and Cramlington	1,263	1,860	198	108	90	0	0	0	3,519
Northumberland	Prudhoe South	3,739	Hexham and Cramlington	1,026	1,684	174	93	81	0	0	0	3,058
Northumberland	South Tynedale	3,831	Hexham and Cramlington	1,899	785	160	28	72	0	0	0	2,944
Northumberland	Stocksfield and Broomhaugh	3,808	Hexham and Cramlington	1,689	939	161	37	85	0	0	0	2,911
	Total	58,175		24,994	15,757	3,287	931	1,254	0	0	0	46,223

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hexham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wansbeck

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wansbeck, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wansbeck				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Northumberland	Ashington Central	3,181	Blyth and Ashington	553	1,833	69	77	38	0	0	0	2,570
Northumberland	Bedlington Central	3,483	Blyth and Ashington	898	1,293	135	73	35	0	0	0	2,434
Northumberland	Bedlington East	3,130	Blyth and Ashington	599	1,663	83	70	36	0	0	0	2,451
Northumberland	Bedlington West	3,577	Blyth and Ashington	906	1,337	155	78	38	0	0	0	2,514
Northumberland	Bothal	3,420	Blyth and Ashington	783	1,303	148	73	38	0	0	0	2,345
Northumberland	Choppington	3,442	Berwick and Morpeth	704	1,654	62	68	30	0	0	0	2,518
Northumberland	College	3,368	Blyth and Ashington	592	1,809	68	72	35	0	0	0	2,576
Northumberland	Haydon	3,486	Blyth and Ashington	708	1,442	128	73	35	0	0	0	2,386
Northumberland	Hirst	3,113	Blyth and Ashington	667	1,906	57	84	37	0	0	0	2,751
Northumberland	Longhorsley	940	Berwick and Morpeth	373	164	17	36	8	0	0	0	598
Northumberland	Morpeth Kirkhill	4,015	Berwick and Morpeth	1,169	1,096	189	78	50	0	0	0	2,582
Northumberland	Morpeth North	3,650	Berwick and Morpeth	1,220	933	188	70	119	0	0	0	2,530
Northumberland	Morpeth Stobhill	3,502	Berwick and Morpeth	1,095	987	158	73	43	0	0	0	2,356
Northumberland	Newbiggin Central and East	3,378	Blyth and Ashington	738	1,596	127	81	38	0	0	0	2,580
Northumberland	Pegswood	3,163	Berwick and Morpeth	777	961	134	172	35	0	0	0	2,079
Northumberland	Seaton with Newbiggin West	3,425	Blyth and Ashington	632	1,540	99	164	35	0	0	0	2,470
Northumberland	Sleekburn	3,180	Blyth and Ashington	707	1,441	138	77	40	0	0	0	2,403
Northumberland	Stakeford	3,505	Berwick and Morpeth	782	1,380	58	64	28	0	0	0	2,312
	Total	58,958		13,903	24,338	2,013	1,483	718	0	0	0	42,455

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wansbeck seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Berwick and Morpeth

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Berwick and Morpeth
Northumberland	Alnwick	7,639	Berwick-upon-Tweed	2,783	1,164	1,427	0	113	0	0	0	5,487
Northumberland	Amble	3,866	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,092	1,277	362	0	45	0	0	0	2,776
Northumberland	Amble West with Warkworth	3,239	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,236	478	566	0	47	0	0	0	2,327
Northumberland	Bamburgh	3,631	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,618	402	538	0	49	0	0	0	2,607
Northumberland	Bellingham	3,278	Hexham	1,493	732	165	31	61	0	0	0	2,482
Northumberland	Berwick East	3,799	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,132	766	774	0	57	0	0	0	2,729
Northumberland	Berwick North	3,468	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,144	531	760	0	57	0	0	0	2,492
Northumberland	Berwick West with Ord	3,132	Berwick-upon-Tweed	994	514	697	0	45	0	0	0	2,250
Northumberland	Choppington	3,684	Wansbeck	704	1,654	62	68	30	0	0	0	2,518
Northumberland	Druridge Bay	4,988	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,530	1,527	469	0	57	0	0	0	3,583
Northumberland	Longhorsley	2,172	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,194	174	171	0	21	0	0	0	1,560
Northumberland	Longhorsley	875	Wansbeck	373	164	17	36	8	0	0	0	598
Northumberland	Longhoughton	3,647	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,756	478	334	0	52	0	0	0	2,620
Northumberland	Morpeth Kirkhill	3,777	Wansbeck	1,169	1,096	189	78	50	0	0	0	2,582
Northumberland	Morpeth North	3,701	Wansbeck	1,220	933	188	70	119	0	0	0	2,530
Northumberland	Morpeth Stobhill	3,446	Wansbeck	1,095	987	158	73	43	0	0	0	2,356
Northumberland	Norham and Islandshires	3,430	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,364	349	700	0	50	0	0	0	2,463
Northumberland	Pegswood	665	Berwick-upon-Tweed	215	164	90	0	9	0	0	0	478
Northumberland	Pegswood	3,041	Wansbeck	777	961	134	172	35	0	0	0	2,079
Northumberland	Rothbury	3,878	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,436	407	885	0	57	0	0	0	2,785
Northumberland	Shilbottle	3,832	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,637	733	338	0	43	0	0	0	2,751
Northumberland	Stakeford	3,382	Wansbeck	782	1,380	58	64	28	0	0	0	2,312
Northumberland	Wooler	3,256	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,665	369	271	0	34	0	0	0	2,339
	Total	79,826		28,409	17,240	9,353	592	1,110	0	0	0	56,704

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Berwick and Morpeth. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Anne-Marie Trevelyan (CON)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	79,826
Turnout:	71.0%

Berwick and Morpeth: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Berwick and Morpeth: Overview

Introduction